38% of People Who Already Voted Say Housing Affordability Impacted Their Presidential Pick

• Respondents to a new Redfin-commissioned survey were most likely to say their presidential pick was impacted by the economy, inflation or protecting democracy.
• 40% of respondents said housing affordability impacted their pick for local elected officials. Crime and safety was the top issue impacting how people voted locally.
• Roughly one-third of respondents think mortgage rates will fall if Trump is elected. About one-quarter think rates will fall if Harris is elected.

Just under two in five (38%) U.S. residents who had already voted as of November 1 say housing affordability impacted their presidential pick. This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos on Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2024. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 1,002 U.S. adults.

Kamala Harris voters were much more likely than Donald Trump voters to say housing affordability factored into their decision: 43% of respondents who already voted for Harris say affordability impacted their pick, compared to 29% of respondents who already voted for Trump. 

Overall, people who already voted–regardless of who they voted for–were less likely to factor housing affordability into their presidential decision than most other issues we asked about. Eleven of the 14 issues listed in the survey were more likely than housing affordability to impact votes. 

The leading concern for early voters was the economy (63%), followed by  inflation (59%), and protecting democracy (56%). Next came immigration (55%), healthcare (52%), crime and safety (47%), access to abortion (45%), U.S. involvement in foreign wars (41%), freedom of speech (41%), gun violence (40%) and the United States’ standing in the world (38%). The only issues less likely to impact early voters’ presidential pick than housing affordability were climate change (36%) and access to gender affirming care (19%).

While voters who have already cast their ballot were more likely to cite issues other than housing affordability, it’s still an important factor for many voters. It has become much more difficult to afford to buy or rent a home since the pandemic-driven moving boom, which drove up housing costs. It’s worth noting that homes in traditionally blue parts of the country are typically quite expensive, which is likely one reason Harris voters were more likely to say housing affordability impacted their vote than Trump voters.

For Local Races, 40% of Early Voters Say Housing Affordability Impacted Their Decision

Housing affordability ranks higher when it comes to voting for local elected officials than for president. 

Two in five (40%) U.S. residents who have already voted say housing affordability factored into their pick for local races. 

Crime and safety was the most important consideration, with 50% of early voters saying it impacted their decision on who to vote for. It’s followed by the economy (46%) and inflation (41%), then housing affordability. 

Moving on to local ballot measures, 37% of people who already voted say housing affordability factored into their vote.

The economy was the most important issue in regards to local ballot measures/proposals/initiatives, with nearly half (47%) of those who already cast a ballot saying it impacted their decisions. Next were crime and safety (44%) and inflation (42%).  

Roughly One-Third of U.S. Residents Think Mortgage Rates Will Fall If Trump Is Elected, While About One-Quarter Think Rates Will Fall If Harris Is Elected

Nearly one-third (32%) of U.S. residents think mortgage rates will fall if Donald Trump is elected president, while less than one-quarter (23%) think rates will fall if Kamala Harris is elected. That’s according to the same Redfin-commissioned survey. 

Similarly, U.S. residents are more likely to think mortgage rates will increase if Harris becomes president; 32% think rates will rise if Harris wins, while 28% think rates will rise if Trump wins.

Many people are torn; one-quarter of respondents (25%) say they don’t know what will happen with mortgage rates if Trump wins, and roughly the same share (26%) don’t know what will happen with rates if Harris wins.

The survey findings in this report are from a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos on Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2024. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 1,002 U.S. adults. 

Mortgage rates are primarily influenced by economic conditions and the Federal Reserve, which is politically independent, though Congress and the president of the United States are  able to influence the long-term direction of the economy through policy changes.

Mortgage rates rose to 7% for the first time since early July last week, causing homebuyers to lose $33,000 in purchasing power. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September and outlined plans for future cuts, but mortgage rates continue to rise as investors try to gauge the odds of increased tariffs and government spending after the election.

Methodology

This report focuses on responses to the following questions: 

1. How do you think the following outcomes of the presidential election will impact mortgage rates? Respondents were asked to consider a Harris presidency and a Trump presidency.
2. Which of the following impacted how you voted for president? Respondents were asked to consider 14 issues, including housing affordability.
3. Which of the following impacted how you voted for local elected officials? Respondents were asked to consider 14 issues, including housing affordability.
4. Which of the following impacted how you voted for local ballot measures/proposals/initiatives? Respondents were asked to consider 14 issues, including housing affordability. 

Of the 1,002 U.S. residents surveyed, 442 indicated that they already voted in the presidential election. Of those 442, 225 said they voted for Kamala Harris and 175 said they voted for Donald Trump. Question 1 includes responses from all 1,002 respondents, while questions 2-4 includes responses only from those who indicated they already voted.

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