What Does a Potential Recession Mean for Housing?

The odds of a recession have increased significantly following several weeks of dramatic government policy shifts. The housing market is relatively insulated from a downturn since most homeowners have locked in low mortgage rates and are sitting on high levels of equity. Renters, however, are more susceptible to job losses.

While the economy remains on solid footing, the odds of a recession this year have increased significantly, with the chaos in Washington, D.C. leaving consumers, businesses, and investors more uncertain and pessimistic about the future.

• Recessions usually start out with the vibe shifting in the form of financial market signals (e.g. an inverted yield curve or tanking stock market), falling consumer/business confidence, and rising unemployment insurance (UI) claims. We’re seeing most of these indicators right now. (The only exception is UI claims, but that’s mostly because laid-off government workers won’t apply for UI until their severance ends.) A recession doesn’t have to follow a shift in vibes, but it often does because sentiment can eventually lead to consequential economic decisions. So far, we see no sign of a recession in the hard economic data (e.g. personal income, unemployment rate), but by the time it’s evident there, the recession has already started.
• Right now, we’re likely at slightly less than even odds of a recession this year—perhaps 40%. That is much higher than two months ago, when recession odds were closer to the baseline of 15%. Whether we continue down the road towards a recession depends critically on policy choices in the coming weeks. An escalating trade war, indiscriminate slashing of the federal government, and sealing the border are all bad for economic growth, but worse still is uncertainty. Veering wildly on policy repeatedly makes it impossible for consumers and businesses to make big decisions on spending, hiring, and investment.

If a recession hits, renters are more vulnerable than homeowners. Home prices are unlikely to fall, because homeowners are unlikely to be forced to sell.

• As the economy weakens, mortgage rates typically fall, as the Fed typically slashes the fed funds rate. This is a major channel through which the Fed tries to strengthen the economy. Indeed, as economic data came in weaker these past few weeks, mortgage rates fell in anticipation of more Fed rate cuts. However, mortgage rates may stop declining, or even climb again, if—instead of a recession—it becomes clear that we’re actually entering stagflation, characterized by both weak economic growth and high inflation. In that case, the Fed would keep rates high to prioritize fighting inflation, as there are other tools (e.g., unemployment insurance) to help bolster the labor market. Stagflation is a real possibility, and perhaps more likely than a recession, because most of the administration’s policy priorities around immigration, tariffs, and federal government cuts both reduce economic growth and increase inflation.

• Renters are more likely to bear the brunt as the labor market deteriorates, because most recessions hit lower-income individuals harder. Rental demand may decrease and drive rents lower. Higher-income homeowners are less likely to lose their jobs and most homeowners aren’t very leveraged, because they’ve locked in ultra-low mortgage rates. Mortgage delinquency may rise, but it won’t necessarily spike. In addition, unlike during the financial crisis, homeowners are currently sitting on record levels of equity in their homes, thanks to rapid home price appreciation during the pandemic and stricter underwriting standards. That means homeowners are less likely to stop paying their mortgage simply because they are underwater—and they also have the option to sell their home in case of distress. The most vulnerable homeowners are the ones who bought recently with high prices and high rates, but even then, if rates drop enough, these individuals could refinance and see their monthly payment shrink considerably. And mortgage servicers are also much more ready these days to offer mortgage forbearance and modification, rather than pursue foreclosure in the case of delinquency. This all adds up to few forced sales and home prices are unlikely to fall.

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