Florida and Texas Are Gaining Residents at a Much Slower Rate Than They Used To, Eating Into Homebuyer Demand

The rising cost of housing and the increasing frequency of natural disasters are slowing migration to certain Florida and Texas metros. 

The flow of U.S. residents moving into Florida, Texas and other parts of the Sun Belt slowed significantly in 2024.

Tampa had a net inflow of just over 10,000 residents in 2024, less than one-third the 35,000-person net inflow the year before, marking the biggest slowdown in domestic migration of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Net inflow is how many more U.S. residents move into a metro area than move out; it includes domestic moves only. 

Dallas saw the next-biggest slowdown, with a net inflow of roughly 13,000 residents in 2024, down from 35,000 the year before. Next comes Atlanta, which had a net outflow of nearly 2,000 in 2024, meaning 2,000 more U.S. residents moved out of the metro than in. That’s compared to a net inflow of 17,000 the year before. 

Next came Houston, Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Austin. 

The migration figures in this report are from a Redfin analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. It focuses on the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas as of 2024, the most recent year for which data is available. The difference between 2023 and 2024 is calculated from July 2023 to July 2024. Net domestic migration is the difference between the number of U.S. residents moving into a metro area and the number moving out. If there is net inflow into a metro area, there are more residents moving in than out. If there is net outflow, there are more residents moving out than in. This metric includes domestic moves and excludes international moves. 

There are several reasons migration to the Sun Belt is slowing, particularly in Florida and Texas:

• • Rising cost of living. Although the cost of buying or renting a home in much of Florida and Texas is now flattening out or falling, it rose rapidly during the pandemic, when migration into those states skyrocketed. Places like Tampa, Dallas and Austin were once seen as affordable alternatives to high-cost cities like San Francisco and New York, but now the gap in housing costs between big-city job centers and Sun Belt metros has shrunk. 
  • Natural disasters, high insurance costs make it less appealing to live in Florida. Moving to Florida is less attractive than it used to be because of the increasing frequency and intensity of climate disasters, like hurricanes. That has also resulted in skyrocketing insurance premiums and HOA fees, which exacerbates the rising cost of housing. The trend is similar in Texas. 
  • In-office work. Many Americans left big East Coast and West Coast cities for the Sun Belt during the pandemic as record-low mortgage rates and remote work allowed them to buy homes in more affordable areas with warm weather. But now that many companies are requiring workers to come into the office, fewer people have the freedom to move–and some people who moved to the Sun Belt during the pandemic are returning to big cities.  
  • Competition from more affordable places. Those who are able to relocate may be considering other parts of the country, like the Midwest or the Northeast, because they’re more affordable than the Sun Belt and less prone to natural disasters. For instance, Minneapolis and Indianapolis, where median home-sale and rent prices are lower than they are in places like Miami or Austin, are among the metro areas that saw migration rise in 2024. 
  • High cost of moving, economic uncertainty. Home sales were slow across the U.S. in 2024 due to high mortgage rates, high sale prices and widespread economic uncertainty about inflation and layoffs. Many Americans chose to stay put rather than take on the financial risk of a major move. 

“People used to move to Florida partly because they could get a deal. Now, people can’t afford to move here,” said Bryan Carnaggio, a Redfin Premier agent in Florida. “The first questions from out-of-staters are, ‘How bad are the hurricanes? How high are insurance rates?’”

The rising cost of housing is one factor in slowing migration to the Sun Belt, and slowing migration is now one factor pushing homebuying demand down in those areas.  

In some of the places where migration is slowing most, sale prices are either falling or they’re flat. That’s due partly to the pandemic construction boom and surging supply in Florida and Texas. There’s now a surplus of homes and apartments in parts of those states, and slowing migration–along with locals being priced out–means there are fewer people to buy them, which is one reason demand feels slow. 

Fewer people are moving out of expensive coastal job centers

On the flip side, fewer U.S. residents are leaving big-city job centers like New York City and Los Angeles. 

New York saw its net outflow shrink more than any other metro. Nearly 120,000 more residents moved out of New York City than into it in 2024, but that’s compared to a net outflow of about 153,000 residents the year before. Net outflow is how many more U.S. residents move out of a metro area than move in.

Next comes Los Angeles, with a net outflow of 100,000 in 2024–but that’s compared to a net outflow of 121,000 the year before. In Washington, D.C., 16,000 more residents left than moved in, down from a net outflow of 36,000 the year before. Rounding out the top 10 are Chicago, Anaheim, CA, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Seattle, Nassau County, NY (Long Island) and Boston. 

Nine of the 10 aforementioned metros lost residents to other metros in 2024, but they lost fewer residents than the year before. Sacramento is the only metro on this list with a net inflow: About 600 more people moved into the California capital than out in 2024, compared to an outflow of more than 12,000 the year before. 

These metro areas are losing fewer residents than they used to for some of the same reasons outlined in the section above. One, moving out of expensive cities is less attractive because the affordability gap between a place like Los Angeles and a place like Austin has narrowed. Two, remote work is less prevalent, meaning more people need to live close to their office. 

In many of the metro areas where net outflow is slowing most, homebuying demand is holding steady–at least for fairly priced, move-in ready homes. Redfin agents in Chicago and Seattle, for instance, say they are seeing bidding wars on a regular basis. 

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