The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall

• There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market.

• Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. Prospective buyers may see their purchasing power increase, and prospective sellers should consider selling sooner rather than later.

• 31 of the top 50 metros are buyer’s markets. The strongest buyer’s market is Miami, where sellers outnumber buyers roughly 3 to 1. The strongest seller’s market is Newark, and the most balanced market is St. Louis.

• The condo market heavily favors buyers; there are 83% more condo sellers than buyers. By comparison, there are 28% more sellers than buyers in the single-family-home market.

There are an estimated 1.9 million home sellers in the U.S. housing market and an estimated 1.5 million homebuyers. In other words, there are 33.7% more sellers than buyers (or 490,041 more, to be exact). At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers by this large of a number or percentage. A year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by just 6.5%, and two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers.

There haven’t been this many home sellers since March 2020. There haven’t been this few buyers at any point in records dating back to 2013 aside from April 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a halt.

The most recent data point in this analysis is April 2025. The estimated number of sellers in the market is simply the number of active listings in the MLS. To estimate the number of buyers, we created a model that uses data on pending sales and the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to their purchase. Scroll down for a full methodology and data on the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. 

Redfin earlier this month predicted that home prices will drop 1% year over year by the end of 2025, and the growing imbalance between buyers and sellers is the basis for that prediction. When sellers are competing for a small pool of buyers, that indicates a buyer’s market. And when it’s a buyer’s market, home prices can fall because buyers have negotiating power. 

Sellers outnumber buyers for several reasons:

• It’s expensive to buy a home: High home prices and mortgage rates are scaring buyers off. The median home sale price rose 1.6% year over year to $431,931 in April. That’s the slowest growth in nearly two years, but monthly housing payments still hit a record high last month because mortgage rates and prices remain elevated. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.73% in April—more than double the record low hit during the pandemic. 
• Economic uncertainty: Tariff talks, layoffs, and federal policy changes are among the other factors dampening homebuyer demand. A recent Redfin survey found that nearly 1 in 4 Americans is scrapping plans to make a major purchase due to tariffs. 
• The mortgage rate lock-in effect is easing: Homeowners who have been sitting on ultra-low mortgage rates they scored during the pandemic are now giving up those low rates and selling their homes. That’s because for most people, it’s not realistic to stay put forever; job changes, return to office mandates and divorce force people to move. The idea of taking on a higher mortgage rate also isn’t as shocking as it was when rates first skyrocketed in 2022. 

“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall. Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “But as sellers see their homes sit longer on the market and notice fewer buyers coming through on tour, more of them will realize that the market has adjusted and reset their expectations accordingly.”

Sellers are already gaining more data points on this front, and will likely face another reality  check in the summer, when demand typically starts to slow. More than two of every five (44%) home listings in April had been on the market for 60 days or longer—the highest April share since 2020. Stale inventory is piling up in part because many sellers are overpricing their homes, using sky-high comps from the recent seller’s market that aren’t realistic today. In some cases, sellers are pricing high because they bought at the peak of the market and are trying to recoup their investment. 

The takeaway for sellers: Time is not on your side. If you are considering selling, do it sooner rather than later because home prices in your area may fall. If your home is already on the market and has been sitting for over a month, you may want to consider an improvement to your property or a reduction in price.

The takeaway for buyers: Many Americans have already been and will remain priced out of the housing market, even if prices decline. But for those who are still in the game, don’t get discouraged. Your purchasing power will increase if home prices fall, wages rise and mortgage rates remain steady as expected. Homes that would have been out of reach six months ago may come into reach as sellers entertain lower offers and concessions.

History Shows That Home Prices Cool When Sellers Outnumber Buyers

A change in the balance of buyers and sellers is a signal of what’s to come with home prices. Aside from the onset of the pandemic, the last time sellers significantly outnumbered buyers was around the time mortgage rates jumped in 2018.

In November 2018, the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate peaked at 4.87%, which was the highest level in nearly eight years and almost a full percentage point higher than a year earlier. One month later, sellers outnumbered buyers by 9.4%—the largest percentage since 2015 and a reversal from the prior year, when buyers outnumbered sellers. Three months later, home-price growth shrunk to the lowest level in at least six years, with prices rising 2% from a year earlier to $283,912. 

We saw a similar dynamic take hold in 2013-2014. As shown in the chart below, swings in the ratio of buyers to sellers are typically followed by similar swings in home-price growth.

Today, the imbalance between buyers and sellers is even greater, meaning there’s more pressure on prices. Annual price growth has already slowed to 1.6% from 6.2% last spring, and we expect this trajectory to continue, ultimately causing prices to fall. The last time home prices posted a year-over-year decline was 2023. 

Even as mortgage rates surged in 2022, buyers outnumbered sellers. Sellers most recently started outnumbering buyers in November 2023—the month after mortgage rates hit the highest level in over two decades, peaking at almost 8%. Homebuyer demand has been sluggish ever since, and is likely to remain so given widespread economic uncertainty and recession fears. What has changed recently is more sellers have started entering the market. 

Miami and West Palm Beach Are the Strongest Buyer’s Markets, With Nearly Three Times More Sellers Than Buyers

In Miami, there are an estimated 21,672 home sellers and 7,280 homebuyers. That means there are 197.7% more sellers than buyers—the largest imbalance among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. It’s followed by West Palm Beach, FL (182% more sellers than buyers), Fort Lauderdale, FL (179.3%), Austin, TX (124.1%) and Jacksonville, FL (119.5%).

In this report, we define a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market. 

Overall, 31 of the 50 most populous metros are buyer’s markets, 12 are balanced markets and seven are seller’s markets. The buyer’s markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt and on the West Coast, while balanced markets and seller’s markets skew more toward the Midwest and East Coast. Scroll down for full metro-level data.

Top 10 Buyer’s Markets: April 2025 

“It has absolutely shifted to a buyer’s market, which means house hunters have a lot more options—and room to negotiate,” said Tim Harper, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Daytona Beach, FL. “It’s not uncommon for a buyer to get a home for 5% less than the list price and $10,000 in seller concessions. That’s why it’s important for sellers to make sure their home is in tip-top shape. We’re frequently recommending sellers do a lot of cosmetic repairs and maintenance to get buyers’ attention and stand out from the crowd. And of course, don’t overprice.”

The Sun Belt skyrocketed in popularity during the pandemic, when scores of homebuyers moved in from more expensive parts of the country, driving up housing costs and pricing many locals out of the market. To meet surging demand, homebuilders ramped up activity—especially in Florida and Texas—which is one reason there are now a lot more homes for sale than people who want to buy them. 

Six of the top 10 buyer’s markets are in Florida and one is in Texas (there are many more Texas markets in the top 20). Redfin reported in February that Florida saw housing inventory hit the highest level on record, in part because it has been building more homes than any state but Texas. Florida is also grappling with intensifying natural disasters, which has caused home insurance costs to skyrocket and prompted some homeowners to leave the state. Plus, soaring HOA fees are prompting many Florida condo owners to sell.

Parts of Florida and Texas are already seeing home prices fall. The median sale price in Jacksonville fell 3.4% year over year in April—the biggest decline in the country aside from Oakland, CA (also a buyer’s market). Austin came in third place, with a 3% drop.

On average, home prices were roughly flat (+0.5%) from a year earlier across the top 10 buyer’s markets in April. By comparison, prices rose an average of 4.5% in the 12 balanced markets and 6.9% in the seven seller’s markets. These are weighted averages based on the number of homes sold by metro in April 2025.

St. Louis Is the Most Balanced Market; Newark Is the Strongest Seller’s Market

In St. Louis, there are an estimated 9,327 home sellers in the market and 9,447 buyers. That means there are 1.3% fewer sellers than buyers, making St. Louis the most balanced housing market among the 50 most populous metros. 

Next come Virginia Beach, VA (1.7% more sellers than buyers), Kansas City, MO (2.3% more sellers than buyers), Chicago (4.2% more sellers than buyers), and San Jose, CA (4.7% fewer sellers than buyers). The other balanced markets are Cincinnati, Boston, New York, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Warren, MI and Washington, D.C.

“Different markets are balanced for different reasons,” Khan said. “In Cincinnati, homebuyer demand is stronger than the national average, perhaps due to the relatively low cost of housing. At the same time, listings are rising, mirroring the national trend. Together, these forces are creating a balanced market. In Chicago, demand is weak, mirroring the national trend. But inventory is also weak, which creates balance in another way.”

There are just seven seller’s markets. Newark, NJ is the strongest seller’s market, with an estimated 5,241 sellers and 9,899 buyers—or 47.1% fewer sellers than buyers. This imbalance helped Newark home sellers fetch record-high prices last month; the metro’s median sale price rose 12.2% from a year earlier—the biggest gain among the top 50 metros. 

The other seller’s markets are Nassau County, NY (41.7% fewer sellers than buyers), Montgomery County, PA (38.4% fewer), Cleveland (24.8%), New Brunswick, NJ (18.6%), Providence, RI (16.1%) and Baltimore (11.8%). 

New construction can have a significant influence on whether negotiating power lies with buyers or sellers because it impacts the balance of supply and demand. The South issues the most single-unit building permits, followed by the West, the Midwest and the Northeast. As mentioned earlier, many of the nation’s buyer’s markets are in the South or on the West Coast, and many of the balanced markets and seller’s markets are in the Midwest or on the East Coast. 

The 7 Seller’s Markets: April 2025 

The Condo Market Is Tilted Strongly in Favor of Buyers

There are an estimated 259,137 condo sellers in the U.S. housing market and an estimated 141,223 condo buyers. In other words, there are 83.5% more condo sellers than buyers.

By comparison, there are 27.8% more single-family-home sellers than single-family-home buyers, and 33% more townhouse sellers than buyers.

Many condo owners are trying to offload their properties because HOA fees and insurance costs have been soaring, and some homeowners associations are doling out hefty special assessments. Florida is the epicenter of the condo slowdown, but condo markets in many other parts of the U.S. have also been cooling. 

Because there are so many more condo sellers than buyers, condo prices have been underperforming single-family home prices, and in some markets, falling or even plummeting (think Florida). The median U.S. condo sale price rose 0.4% year over year in April, compared with a 1.5% gain in single-family-home prices. 

Metro-Level Summary: 50 Most Populous Metros (April 2025)

Methodology

The number of sellers in the market is simply active listings, or the total number of homes actively for sale at any point during a given month. Active listings data come from the MLS. 

Because there is not a similar metric measuring how many buyers are actively in the market, we developed one. We took active listings and pending sales from the MLS to estimate what fraction of homes on the market will sell within a given month. Analogously, we estimated what fraction of buyers on the market will find a home within a given month using Redfin data on the typical time from first tour to purchase. The ratio of these two data points approximates the ratio of buyers to sellers in the market. We then multiplied that ratio by the number of active listings to get the estimated total number of buyers in the market. Note that our estimate of buyers is not based on Redfin traffic or customer acquisition data, and the purpose of this analysis is to measure the number of buyers and sellers in the housing market as a whole. All metrics that go into our calculation of the number of buyers and sellers in the market are seasonally adjusted.

References:

Anenberg, Elliot and Daniel Ringo, “Volatility in home sales and prices: supply or demand?” Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 139, January 2024, 103610.

Genesove, David and Lu Han, “Search and matching in the housing market,” Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 72, Issue 1, July 2012, pp. 21-45.

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