6% of Today’s Home Sellers Are At Risk of Selling at a Loss. That’s Up From 4.4% a Year Ago, But Still Historically Low.
- The risk of selling at a loss varies significantly in different parts of the country; nearly 20% of sellers are at risk of losing money in San Francisco, compared to virtually 0% of sellers in Providence, RI.
- Nearly one in 10 condos are at risk of selling at a loss. And nearly 30% of condos bought after the pandemic are at risk.
- 16.4% of sellers who bought their homes after the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss in today’s market, compared to 9% of those who bought during the pandemic and 1.8% of those who bought before the pandemic.
- Nearly half (47.5%) of for-sale homes in Austin that were bought after the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss—the highest share among major metros.
- If U.S. home prices were to fall by 1%, the overall share of homes at risk of selling at a loss would increase to 6.4%. That share would increase to 10.1% in the unlikely event that prices fall by 5%.
Nearly 6% of today’s U.S. home sellers are at risk of selling for less than their purchase price, up from 4.4% a year ago, but still well below pre-pandemic levels.
The story is different in different parts of the country. Virtually zero sellers in Providence, RI, for instance, are at risk of selling their home at a loss. But in San Francisco, nearly 20% of sellers are at risk. The story also differs by home type; condos are much more likely to be at risk of selling at a loss than single-family homes or townhouses.
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This is according to a Redfin analysis of active listings on the MLS in May, in which we predict how much a home is likely to sell for based on the sale-to-list price ratio of the metro area where it is located. For example, if a listed home is priced at $500,000 in a metro where the sale-to-list price ratio is 95% (ie. where homes sell on average for 5% under the original list price), we predict that the home will sell for $475,000. We compare that expected sale price to what the seller originally paid for the home. Please note that a predicted loss does not take closing costs into account. See the methodology section at the bottom of the report for more details.
It’s important to note that Redfin’s analysis identifies the share of sellers at risk of selling at a loss if they go through with a sale in today’s market. It does not not predict the share of sellers who will actually sell their home at a loss. Many would-be sellers facing a financial loss will simply wait until they find a buyer willing to pay the asking price, while others may take their home off the market and continue to live in it, or rent it out.
The share of sellers at risk of losing money is historically low
In the early 2010s, following the global financial crisis, roughly half of for-sale homes were at risk of selling at a loss. Even prior to the pandemic, in early 2020, around 10% of for-sale homes were at risk of selling for less than their purchase price.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said the relatively small share of sellers facing a loss today is good news for buyers.
“We are seeing more opportunities for buyers to pay a little less than they would have just a year or two ago. That’s because sellers with significant equity in their homes—and therefore at no risk of selling at a loss—are more willing to be flexible on price,” he said. “That’s a meaningful shift for anyone who’s been watching and waiting for prices to come down, especially first-time homebuyers.”
1 in 6 home sellers who bought after the pandemic are at risk of losing money
Zooming in on recent homebuyers, nearly one in six (16.4%) of today’s sellers who bought their home post-pandemic are at risk of selling for less than their purchase price.
For comparison, 9% of today’s sellers who bought their home during the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, and just 1.8% of sellers who bought before the pandemic are at risk.
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“The longer someone has owned their home, the more likely they are to come out ahead, but that’s little comfort for those who bought more recently and may be facing a loss,” said Khan. “Not every homeowner is listing because they want to—some are listing because they have to. In those cases, it’s important to list at a realistic price for the market and be prepared to adjust depending on buyer interest.”
Sellers who bought their home after the pandemic make up a sizable share of today’s sellers: 16.3% of the U.S. home listings currently on the market were purchased after July 2022. (Note: We have excluded homes bought in the past nine months from the analysis, as they are more likely to have been flipped by developers.)
| Share of active listings based on when they were last purchased | |||
| Purchased Post-Pandemic (after July 2022) | Purchased During Pandemic (July 2020-July 2022) | Purchased Pre-Pandemic (before July 2020) | |
| May 2025 | 16.3% | 20.6% | 63.1% |
Homes that were purchased after the pandemic are more likely to sell at a loss–if they were to sell now–for two main reasons:
- Sellers who bought post-pandemic paid high prices: Intense competition and record-low mortgage rates created a buying frenzy just after the pandemic began. Bidding wars were common, and many homes sold for well above list price, a surge in demand that pushed home values to unprecedented highs by mid-2022.
- Prices are now softening: After peaking in mid-2022, prices have stabilized in much of the country as mortgage rates climbed and demand slowed. While some markets have remained resilient, others have seen values slip from their highs, particularly in the Sun Belt region where demand spiked highest during the pandemic.
“Current sellers who bought their home after mid-2022 may have overextended themselves, thinking that prices were going to keep rising at similar rates,” said Khan. “Prices have kept ticking up since then, but at a slower pace—and now prices have started to fall in some parts of the country, especially in the Sun Belt. That means sellers are in a position where they may need to choose between accepting a lower price, or taking the home off the market.”
Redfin agents in some parts of the country report that some sellers who don’t need to move immediately have already opted to de-list their home.
“A lot of sellers are taking their home off the market rather than reducing their price, with the idea of listing it again next year,” said Aditi Jain, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston. “They’re not motivated by making money the way they would have been two or three years ago because there’s not as much money to make. Another trend with sellers: They’re accepting offers instantly. If they get one solid offer, they’re signing the contract, canceling other tours and open houses, and trying to close the deal as soon as possible.”
Condos significantly more likely to sell at a loss than other home types
More than one in four (28.7%) for-sale condos bought after the pandemic surge are at risk of selling at a loss, the highest share among the different home types. Overall, nearly one in 10 (9.9%) for-sale condos are at risk of selling at a loss.
| Share of active listings at risk of selling at a loss | ||||
| Overall | Bought Post-Pandemic | Bought During Pandemic | Bought Pre-Pandemic | |
| Single Family | 4.4% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 0.9% |
| Condos | 9.9% | 28.7% | 12.7% | 4.5% |
| Townhouse | 6.0% | 19.2% | 8.3% | 1.3% |
| All Home Types | 5.7% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 1.9% |
“We are seeing the biggest price drops in the condo market,” said Denver Redfin Premier agent Andy Potarf. “I had a seller who bought a condo for $570,000 in 2021 and it just sold for $525,000 last week. Sellers who have to sell are willing to take a bigger hit to get the deal done.”
Potarf added that condo sellers are in a particularly tough position because many face restrictions—from HOAs or local authorities—on how they can lease their properties.
“A lot of condo sellers have a choice to make: stay put, or take a loss,” he said.
In comparison, 4.4% of active single family listings are at risk of selling at a loss, including 12.9% of homes bought after the pandemic and 7.9% of those bought during the pandemic.
If prices fall by 1%, the share of homes at risk of selling at a loss will increase
The section above analyzes the risk of homes selling at a loss under current market conditions. Redfin is forecasting that U.S. home prices will fall 1% year over year by the end of 2025 because there are significantly more sellers than buyers in the market.
If prices do fall by 1%, as expected, the overall share of homes at risk of selling at a loss will increase to 6.4%. If prices fall by 3%, the share will increase to 8.1%. In the unlikely event prices fall by 5%, the share of homes at risk of selling at a loss will increase to 10.1%.
| Share of homes at risk of selling at a loss if home prices drop | ||||
| Current | 1% Price Drop | 3% Price Drop | 5% Price Drop | |
| Overall | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
| Bought Post-Pandemic | 16.4% | 19.1% | 25.3% | 32.5% |
| Bought During Pandemic | 9.0% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 15.8% |
| Bought Pre-Pandemic | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
Those who bought prior to the pandemic face minimal risk of selling at a loss, even if prices do fall by 5%.
It’s important to remember that this analysis examines homes that were on the market in May, and that sellers could pull back if prices fall significantly.
Metro-Level Highlights (May 2025)
Top 50 most populous U.S. Metros
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- Overall: Nearly one in five (19.6%) for-sale homes in San Francisco are at risk of selling for less than which they were purchased, the highest share among major metros. San Francisco’s for-sale condos are particularly at risk of selling at a loss (see section below). California’s Bay Area saw a notable slump during the pandemic when remote work enabled residents to move elsewhere, following a decade of rapid growth driven by the tech boom. While the market has now stabilized, San Francisco still has a higher share of homes that were bought for more than they are likely to sell for. Next comes Austin, TX (13.8%) and another Bay Area metro Oakland, CA (11%). Providence, RI (0.5%), New Brunswick, NJ (0.5%) and Anaheim, CA (1%) are the three major metros with the lowest share of homes at risk of selling for a loss.
- Single-family homes: 13.2% of for-sale single-family homes in Austin are at risk of selling at a loss—the highest share among major metros, followed by San Antonio (10.2%) and St. Louis (10%). The lowest shares were recorded in East Coast metros: Providence (0.5%), New Brunswick (0.5%) and Boston (0.6%).
- Condos: More than a third (35.6%) of for-sale San Francisco condos are at risk of selling at a loss. That’s more than ten percentage points higher than the next two major metros on the list: Portland (24.8%) and Oakland (23.2%). For-sale condos are least likely to sell at a loss in New Brunswick (0.4%), Milwaukee (1.1%) and Providence (1.3%).
- Homes bought after the pandemic: Nearly half (47.5%) of for-sale homes in Austin that were bought after July 2022 are at risk of selling at a loss. That’s the highest share among major metros, followed by two more Sun Belt metros: Tampa, FL (35.8%) and Orlando, FL (31.5%). At the other end of the spectrum, Providence (1.3%), New Brunswick (1.5%) and Milwaukee (1.7%) had the lowest shares—a reflection of how price growth has remained more resilient in East Coast and Midwest markets.
- Homes bought during the pandemic: More than a third (34%) of for-sale homes in San Francisco that were bought between July 2020-July 2022 are at risk of selling at a loss—the highest share among major metros. Next came Austin (32.2%) and Oakland, CA (32%). New Brunswick recorded the lowest share (0.5%), followed by Providence (0.8%) and Nassau County, NY (1%).
- Homes bought before the pandemic: One in six (16.6%) for-sale homes in San Francisco bought prior to July 2020 are at risk of selling at a loss, more than twice the share of the next highest metros St. Louis (7.2%) and Detroit (5.6%). The lowest share was recorded in Nashville (0.2%), followed by San Diego (0.2%) and Providence (0.2%).
| Metro | May-25 | Single Family | Condos | Bought Post-Pandemic | Bought During Pandemic | Bought Pre-Pandemic | If Prices Fall 1% | If Prices Fall 3% | If Prices Fall 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim, CA | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% |
| Atlanta, GA | 4.0% | 3.1% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% |
| Austin, TX | 13.8% | 13.2% | 18.6% | 47.5% | 32.2% | 0.5% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| Baltimore, MD | 4.1% | 1.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% |
| Boston, MA | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| Charlotte, NC | 2.4% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% |
| Chicago, IL | 4.1% | 2.5% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| Cincinnati, OH | 1.3% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| Cleveland, OH | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% |
| Columbus, OH | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% |
| Dallas, TX | 8.0% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 26.2% | 13.0% | 0.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 14.8% |
| Denver, CO | 7.5% | 3.8% | 16.0% | 24.2% | 14.5% | 0.5% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 14.8% |
| Detroit, MI | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | 6.9% | 3.2% | 9.9% | 27.0% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.4% |
| Fort Worth, TX | 7.1% | 6.7% | 14.3% | 21.8% | 11.0% | 0.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 14.4% |
| Houston, TX | 7.2% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 1.7% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 14.2% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 1.6% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 8.4% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 25.6% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 15.0% |
| Kansas City, MO | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 3.4% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% |
| Miami, FL | 5.0% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% |
| Milwaukee, WI | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| Minneapolis, MN | 5.0% | 2.0% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% |
| Montgomery County, PA | 1.2% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| Nashville, TN | 5.2% | 3.3% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 0.2% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 11.3% |
| Nassau County, NY | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| New Brunswick, NJ | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| New York, NY | 5.0% | 1.4% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% |
| Newark, NJ | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| Oakland, CA | 11.0% | 7.2% | 23.2% | 23.5% | 32.0% | 4.2% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 16.2% |
| Orlando, FL | 9.8% | 6.4% | 17.0% | 31.5% | 10.1% | 1.2% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 4.0% | 1.1% | 14.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 8.0% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 25.5% | 15.4% | 0.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 14.1% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% |
| Portland, OR | 6.3% | 2.3% | 24.8% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.1% |
| Providence, RI | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Riverside, CA | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 0.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% |
| Sacramento, CA | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% |
| San Antonio, TX | 10.4% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 29.8% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 18.5% |
| San Diego, CA | 2.7% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% |
| San Francisco, CA | 19.6% | 5.7% | 35.6% | 21.7% | 34.0% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 23.1% | 26.1% |
| San Jose, CA | 6.0% | 0.9% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.2% |
| Seattle, WA | 4.8% | 1.4% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% |
| St. Louis, MO | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 14.0% |
| Tampa, FL | 10.5% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 35.8% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| Virginia Beach, VA | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% |
| Warren, MI | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% |
| Washington, DC | 4.1% | 1.3% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 9.2% |
| West Palm Beach, FL | 6.9% | 3.7% | 10.3% | 27.8% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% |
| National | 5.7% | 4.4% | 9.9% | 16.4% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
Methodology:
This Redfin analysis of active listings on the MLS in May predicts how much a home is likely to sell for based on the sale-to-list price ratio of the metro area it is located. For example, if a listed home is priced at $500,000 in a metro where the sale-to-list price ratio is 95% (ie. where homes sell on average for 5% under the original list price), we predict that the home will sell for $475,000. We then compare that predicted sale price against the price the home was last bought for to see if the owner is likely to sell at a loss.
When examining the impact of potential price drops, we reduced the predicted sale price by 1%, 3% or 5% and then recalculated whether the reduced price would be less than it was last purchased.
Risk of selling at a loss does not mean a seller is “underwater” (i.e. owing more to a lender than the value of the property). That’s because almost all sellers have built enough equity in their home, through a down payment and/or monthly payments, to sell their home for more than they owe.
National figures are representative of the combined results of the top 50 most populous metro areas.
We define the pandemic period as July 2020-July 2022, a period where home prices surged.
We excluded homes bought in the past nine months, as they are more likely to have been flipped by developers.
Please note that a predicted loss in this report does not take closing costs into account.
The post 6% of Today’s Home Sellers Are At Risk of Selling at a Loss. That’s Up From 4.4% a Year Ago, But Still Historically Low. appeared first on Redfin Real Estate News.
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