Government Shutdown Could Impact Mortgage Processing, D.C. Housing Market

A federal government shutdown next Wednesday seems increasingly likely. The impact on the housing market would be fairly limited, though potentially larger in the Washington D.C. area—especially if the shutdown coincided with a reduction-in-force.

Congress has not passed any appropriations bills this year, so a government shutdown would affect all departments that rely on discretionary funding and whose operations are not deemed essential. 

Historically, impacted employees are furloughed and then receive back pay when the government re-opens. However, the Office of Management and Budget instructed agencies this week to start creating reduction-in-force (RIF) plans for any programs that would be affected by the shutdown and which are not consistent with the White House’s priorities. It is unclear whether the courts would uphold these layoffs should they occur.

The impact to the housing market has been limited during previous government shutdowns. In this instance, we would expect a similar outcome, but the D.C. area housing market could see a bigger impact if many federal workers were laid off, rather than furloughed.

• D.C. area impact:
  • Most federal workers are located in the D.C., Maryland, and Virginia area. Any effect on the local housing market via reduced demand from temporary furloughs would be minimal, especially if the shutdown is short. However, a large RIF could create the same effects as the DOGE cuts earlier this year with less demand and more supply. Even if the courts later reversed the RIF, the uncertainty itself will have an impact on the local housing market.

• Delays and frictions for sales in progress:
  • Homebuyers seeking federally backed mortgages, such as FHA or VA loans (together about a quarter to a third of all loan applications), may experience application delays. This is because FHA loans are secured through HUD and VA loans through the Department of Veterans Affairs, both of which may be affected.
  • Homebuyers in flood-prone regions such as Florida and Louisiana, who rely on government-backed flood insurance, could face delays in their home purchases. This is due to a potential halt in funding for the National Flood Insurance Program.
  • Any mortgage applications that are reliant on tax return transcripts or income verification from the IRS could also be delayed.

• Financial market impact
  • Markets generally shrug off government shutdowns, as they follow a fairly predictable playbook. An unusually long shutdown or any RIFs could upend those expectations—though markets may view layoffs as likely to be overturned by the courts.
  • If the government statistical agencies are affected and critical data releases are delayed, markets could become more volatile, especially if expectations around Fed rate cuts for the October and December meetings get scrambled. The most important upcoming data release is the October 3 jobs report.

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