Housing Market Update: Homebuying Demand Shows Early Signs of Rebound Following Weeks of Declining Mortgage Rates and Increasing Listings

by Jim Marks

Declining mortgage rates and a double-digit increase in new listings are bringing house hunters off the sidelines, with pending sales posting their smallest decline in about 20 months.

We’re taking a break from analysis this week, but please see the tables and charts below for this week’s housing-market data. We’ll be back with full commentary in next week’s report. Happy holidays!

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.61% (Dec. 27)	Lowest level since May	Up slightly from 6.50%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.67% (week ending Dec. 21)	Lowest level since June	Up from 6.27%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Down 1% from a week earlier; up 7% from a month earlier (as of week ending Dec. 15, the most recent week for which data is available)	Down 18%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 6% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Dec. 24)	Down 6%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 8% from a month earlier (as of Dec. 23)	Unchanged	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending December 24, 2023 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending December 24, 2023	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$364,250	4.5%	Biggest increase since Oct. 2022. Prices are up partly because rapidly rising mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year
Median asking price	$363,484	5.1%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,401 at a 6.67% mortgage rate	7.3%	Down $334 (-12.2%) from all-time high set during the four weeks ending Oct. 22. Lowest level since February.
Pending sales	57,600	-4%	Smallest decline since March 2022
New listings	53,243	12.2%	Biggest uptick since June 2021. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year.
Active listings	817,863	-3.8%	Smallest decline since June
Months of supply	3.6 months	+0.2 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	27.4%	Up from 25%
Median days on market	39	-2 days
Share of homes sold above list price	25%	Up from 23%
Share of homes with a price drop	5%	+0.8 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.5%	+0.5 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending December 24, 2023 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Anaheim, CA (18.2%) Newark, NJ (17%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.6%) West Palm Beach, FL (13.2%) Miami (12.6%)	Austin, TX (-4%) Fort Worth, TX (-2.2%) San Francisco (-1.1%)	Declined in 3 metros
Pending sales	Dallas (8.5%) Milwaukee (8.4%) Austin (5.1%) Orlando, FL (5%) Fort Worth, TX (4.6%)	Providence, RI (-15.2%) Virginia Beach, VA (-10.6%) Jacksonville, FL (-10.2%) West Palm Beach (-10.2%) Tampa, FL (-9.6%)	Increased in 14 metros
New listings	Phoenix (31.5%) San Antonio (25.6%) Dallas (21.4%) Washington, D.C. (20.6%) Montgomery County, PA (19.6%)	San Francisco (-25.7%) Indianapolis, IN (-12.8%) Atlanta (-11.5%) Warren, MI (-6.4%) Newark (-3.9%)	Declined in 10 metros