Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: First Jobs Report of 2026 Could Impact Mortgage Rates

This Week In A Nutshell

The first jobs report of 2026—and the first “normal” report post-government shutdown—will be published on Friday. We’ll be on the lookout for signs that the labor market is weakening more than expected, which would bring about lower rates.

Upcoming Attractions

This is jobs week with a series of labor market data releases culminating in the potentially market-moving jobs report on Friday.

• Jobs report (Friday) – This is the first on-time jobs report since the October government shutdown and should be mostly free from distortions. Forecasters expect a reading of about 70,000 jobs created in December along with a small decline in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
• JOLTS (Wednesday) – Forecasters expect job openings in November to hold steady at around 7.7 million.
• Fed speak – Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin (not an FOMC voter this year) will speak on Tuesday and Friday.
• Housing Starts (Friday) – Delayed September and October housing starts data will released simultaneously

Redfin Housing Market Reports

• The U.S. Housing Market Has 37% More Sellers Than Buyers—More Than Double Last Year’s Gap
  • Summer 2025 was the only time in records dating back to 2013 that sellers outnumbered buyers by a larger percentage.
  • This mismatch means it’s a buyer’s market, with many buyers successfully negotiating lower prices and or concessions from sellers.
  • Austin, TX is the strongest buyer’s market, while Nassau County, NY is the strongest seller’s market; San Francisco has pivoted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market.
• U.S. Home Prices Ticked Up 0.2% in November
  • U.S. home prices rose 0.2% from a month earlier in November on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  • Home prices increased 2.6% year over year, down from 2.9% the month before and the slowest growth in records dating back more than a decade.
  • Prices fell month over month in 11 major metros, with the biggest declines in Charlotte, Austin and Cincinnati.
• Western New York Is the Most Competitive Place to Buy a Home in America
  • A lakeside Rochester suburb tops the list, but the Bay Area is a close second.
• Home Sellers Retreat, With Supply Posting Biggest Decline Since 2023
  • Active listings fell 1.4% month over month in November as sellers backed off due to sluggish homebuyer demand.
  • Pending home sales fell the most in nearly a year, and the typical home that did sell sat on the market for 53 days—the slowest November pace in nearly a decade.
  • A silver lining for buyers: Many sellers are cutting prices to attract offers—the typical home that sold last month went for 1.6% below its final list price.

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