Mortgage Rates Fall Ahead of Potential Government Shutdown

Mortgage rates are seeing some relief today following a number of important economic developments. What’s driving the move in rates? Here’s our take:

1. Potential government shutdown: New developments are coming every hour, but as of Friday afternoon there’s a chance the government could shut down going into the holidays. In general, a government shutdown usually pushes rates down, because investors are looking for safety and US government bonds (ironically) are still the safest place. Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, we could see other disruptions that impact borrowers who are trying to obtain a loan from FHA or VA, or those who need government-backed flood insurance to close on a purchase. The real estate market in the DC area could also be impacted if the shutdown goes on for a very long time.
2. Reversal of some of the overreaction to Wednesday’s Fed meeting: There was a big sentiment shift after the Fed pivoted sharply to a more hawkish stance, but ultimately what the Fed communicated was not all that different from what futures markets were pricing ahead of the meeting. So it was a bit surprising that rates moved so much and futures markets started to expect higher rates for even longer than the Fed. We’re seeing a little bit of a retreat in that today as investors have had time to digest the news.
3. PCE report: Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation) came in exactly as economists and the Fed predicted this morning, but it was milder than the CPI report earlier this month. That by itself shouldn’t be having a big effect on mortgage rates, but it may provide some relief that it didn’t come in worse than expected. 

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