High Housing Payments Are Slowing Home Sales, But Buyers Could Get Relief Soon
In Los Angeles, demand for rentals is spiking as residents displaced by wildfires search for housing.
The median U.S. monthly housing payment is $2,686, the highest level in nearly seven months, as of the four weeks ending January 19. Housing costs are high because of rising mortgage rates and home prices: The weekly average mortgage rate is 7.04%, the highest level since May, and the median U.S. home-sale price is up 5% year over year.
High housing costs are one factor keeping many would-be homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 10.1% annually, the biggest decline in more than a year, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is near its lowest level since June. Homes are also selling relatively slowly. The average home is selling in 52 days, the longest span in two years.
Other factors pushing down pending sales are extreme cold and snow in some parts of the country, wildfires in Southern California and limited new listings. Some prospective buyers also likely held off in the run-up to President Trump’s inauguration to wait and see if the new administration would take immediate action on housing.
There are signals homebuyers could get cost relief soon. Daily average mortgage rates started coming down last week after a softer-than-expected CPI report, and Redfin economists expect rates to decline more if President Trump continues to signal he will be less aggressive on tariffs than expected. And sale-price increases may be losing momentum; the 5% year-over-year increase is the smallest since October.
The ongoing Los Angeles wildfires are pushing up rental searches and pushing down home sales
Roughly one of every six (17%) homes within the perimeters of the Palisades and Eaton fires in the Los Angeles area have been destroyed or damaged, according to a Redfin analysis of housing and Cal Fire data. Local Redfin agents report that the destruction has created a ripple effect of people searching for temporary or permanent housing.
Online views of rental listings in Los Angeles County nearly doubled from a year earlier to their highest levels in at least two years during the second week in January, also according to a Redfin analysis. But would-be buyers are backing off; pending home sales were down roughly 10% year over year during the four weeks ending January 19.
“I’m focused on helping families displaced by the fires find short-term housing, which is challenging because rentals are moving at an incredibly fast pace,” said Erik Miles, a Redfin Premier agent in the Los Angeles Area. “I took one family from the Palisades to see a rental listing in West Hollywood last week, but it had already received 10 offers. The person who won it signed a three-year lease. Thankfully that same agent had another rental in the area, so I took the family to see it immediately. It had received 35 offers sight-unseen, but my client is in position to get it because they had seen it in person.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.08% (Jan. 22) | Down from 7.26% a week earlier | Up from 6.89% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.04% (week ending Jan. 16) | Highest level since May | Up from 6.6% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Up 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Jan. 17) | Up 2% | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) | Up slightly from a week earlier, but still near lowest level since June
(as of week ending Jan. 19) |
Up 7% | Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Touring activity | Up 5.3% from the start of the year (as of Jan. 15) | At this time last year, it was essentially flat from the start of 2024 | ShowingTime, a home touring technology company | |
| Google searches for “home for sale” | Up 24% from a month earlier (as of Jan. 21) | Unchanged | Google Trends | |
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Jan. 19, 2025
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
| Four weeks ending Jan. 19, 2025 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $378,144 | 5% | Smallest increase since October |
| Median asking price | $394,925 | 4.6% | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,686 at a 7.04% mortgage rate | 7.6% | Highest level since June |
| Pending sales | 51,122 | -10.1% | Biggest decline since October 2023 |
| New listings | 54,982 | -2.9% | |
| Active listings | 859,262 | 8.8% | Smallest increase in nearly a year |
| Months of supply | 5 | +0.2 pts. | 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 23.1% | Down from 26% | |
| Median days on market | 52 | +6 days to highest level in 2 years | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 21.3% | Down from 23% | |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 98.1% | Essentially unchanged | |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Jan. 19, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | Milwaukee (16.9%)
Pittsburgh (13.5%) Newark, NJ (12.5%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (12.1%) Anaheim, CA (11.5%) |
San Francisco (-5.9%)
Austin, TX (-3.1%) Tampa, FL (-2.8%) Denver (-0.6%) San Antonio (-0.1%) |
Declined in 5 metros |
| Pending sales | Portland, OR (7.5%) | Detroit (-28.1%)
Atlanta (-20.6%) Miami (-20%) Warren, MI (-19.8%) Houston (-16.8%) |
Increased in 1 metro |
| New listings | Phoenix (15.2%)
San Jose, CA (14.9%) Seattle (10.2%) Sacramento, CA (9.3%) Portland, OR (8.3%) |
Newark, NJ (-36.7%)
Detroit (-22.2%) San Antonio (-19.4%) Warren, MI (-19.1%) Atlanta (-18.4%) |
Increased in 18 metros |
Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.
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